Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 63.345465 71.128651 80.096752 91.342990 105.289104 122.326913 145.233850
2025-01-05 52.163809 61.710163 73.716089 90.420754 113.959028 147.563705 202.811965
2025-01-12 45.322530 55.256445 68.416257 87.964385 117.993881 166.101334 259.704693
2025-01-19 39.862029 49.535047 62.785757 83.349497 116.913402 175.534307 306.713897
2025-01-26 38.610066 49.203968 64.384047 89.421190 134.069203 223.363949 479.653089
2025-02-02 37.698995 49.153102 66.261922 96.180753 154.565188 290.391204 835.705232
2025-02-09 35.938291 47.612353 65.571982 98.358674 166.958833 348.323557 1387.207279
2025-02-16 33.923622 45.464453 63.605508 97.805914 173.353549 395.709957 2255.734654
2025-02-23 32.222650 43.635180 61.928695 97.460035 180.138621 451.857258 4276.132732
2025-03-02 30.350366 41.381526 59.294493 94.793082 180.430055 485.718216 7861.248543
2025-03-09 28.787777 39.507754 57.133393 92.751981 181.819151 527.630340 20766.435970
2025-03-16 26.952029 37.080145 53.811878 87.879270 174.271654 521.537144 36460.616793
2025-03-23 26.540660 37.020327 54.798855 92.580248 196.614966 718.082938 NaN
2025-03-30 25.371420 35.636453 53.288354 91.646303 202.094947 835.305351 NaN
2025-04-06 24.118858 34.029823 51.223540 89.137721 201.644498 912.729872 NaN
2025-04-13 22.703730 32.071817 48.362216 84.427129 192.331435 893.546980 NaN
2025-04-20 22.698266 32.504378 50.022088 90.625356 224.705756 1497.142375 NaN
2025-04-27 22.713820 32.968734 51.789571 97.531779 265.969612 3078.903098 NaN
2025-05-04 22.241622 32.538373 51.738788 99.758332 289.334563 5562.773434 NaN
2025-05-11 21.547234 31.668635 50.720281 99.193169 299.034477 8825.914603 NaN
2025-05-18 20.920899 30.888286 49.825049 98.839550 310.117027 16818.922699 NaN
2025-05-25 20.136506 29.783221 48.177746 96.113453 306.493462 23106.866273 NaN
2025-06-01 19.454038 28.836305 46.806380 94.027735 305.956534 39131.421887 NaN